Campaigns

The Real Meaning of Super Tuesday

The cynic in me says that today is the culmination of a process in which partisans choose who the rest of a growing non-partisan nation get to select for President.

Swift Kids for Truth

These three are the best, most relevant political ads I've seen in this election cycle. Swift Kids for Truth tell it like it is.

On Hillary Clinton read more »

HRC's religion

This NYT article offers an extended account of Hillary Rodham Clinton's Methodist faith, which seems to focus on forgiveness and social action. The one Bible verse mentioned (the reference to James, "faith without works is dead") was a staple of the 2004 Kerry campaign. And the talk about forgiveness seems to come at the expense of talk of sinfulness and human limitations.

In other words, HRC is very much the candidate of a religious Left inclined mostly to challenge us to be more "generous" in our social policy. read more »

Watching YouTube to Avoid Spreadsheet Duty

One thing I've learned quickly as an intern is that if you don't have anything to do, you will get the job no one wants. On Tuesday that meant I was given photocopied pages of the Illinois Bar Association directory. I was given Tucker to Zimmerman and told to make a spreadsheet of all the attorneys' first name, last name, e-mail, law firm, address, etc.

It was MIND NUMBINGLY BORING!

So I quickly decided I needed to do something to ensure the rest of my week didn't look the same. I don't mind calling people, asking for cash, but we aren't calling anyone this week because people are touchy about being harassed for $2300 during their vacation time. I had to do something, these mind numbing spreadsheets were sucking the life out of me.

I wrote the research department, who I met at the debate last week, with an idea. Maybe I could watch the YouTube videos for the upcoming debate on July 23rd and write down what people are asking.

They wrote back that I had the gig. Go watch all 473 (and counting) 30-second videos and write down the questions. read more »

A flip, a flip, a flippity flop

Disclaimer: Mitt Romney is not my candidate, at least not yet. This post is not meant to introduce a discussion of Romney per se; it's meant to introduce a larger discussion.

What do you think of the charge of flip-flopping as a criticism for a politician? I find the area fascinating for several reasons. First, that charge seems to be greatly feared by candidates, greatly focused on by the media, and hardly considered at all by voters (I don't have the data at my fingertips, but polls back this up). Patrick Ruffini's blog today suggests that presidential candidates tend to govern by the flop and not the flip: "If you look at history, how candidates run -- regardless of what they believed earlier in their career -- is how they govern once they win." Which would make the public's shrugging at flip-flop charges actually quite rational. read more »

The Neutrality of Leftist Journalism

In another blow to the critics of the term "Left-wing media bias", MSNBC is reporting that out of 144 journalists they identified, 125 contributed to Democratic or liberal causes in 2004. However, this is not the point of the story. The chief concern of senior editors and media board members is that the records of their reporters' donations are available to the public. As a result, many news organizations are prohibiting political donations altogether, but this has stirred up a conflict with the rank-and-file journalists.

The donors said they try to be fair in reporting and editing the news. One of the recurring themes in the responses is that it's better for journalists to be transparent about their beliefs, and that editors who insist on manufacturing an appearance of impartiality are being deceptive to a public that already knows journalists aren't without biases.

Essentially, the moral dilemma for senior management is how to maintain the appearance of fairness and neutrality. It's interesting that they prefer restricting donations over hiring more conservative journalists. read more »

The Bill Richardson Experience

Expat has declared his support and official advocacy for the presidential campaign of New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. Expat, I hope you will receive this post in a goodnatured way, for it's an opportunity for you to make your case. (By the way, I have no problem with you posting and being an advocate, as long as you issue the disclaimer, which you did.) So why hasn't the Bill Richardson campaign gotten more traction? We have here a former ambassador, a former cabinet secretary, a governor of a Western state, and one who can appeal to the growing Latino population in the United States. Granted, he's gotten a little Joe-mentum in some polls, but he's certainly not treated as a top-tier candidate yet.
I think one answer to this question may be found in Richardson's recent debate and interview appearances. In a nutshell, uh, things haven't gone so well in the eyes of pundits who play an instrumental role in shaping perceptions about candidates. read more »

More Giuliani in Atlanta

I posted this, with links, at the NLT site.

Formal newspaper reports aren’t yet available on the web, but two veteran AJC reporters blogged on the visit here, here, here, and here. There’s video from local TV here (featuring a distinguished local political analyst) and stills on the Oglethorpe website. read more »

Rudy Giuliani in Atlanta: a quick first take

I saw Will in the room and promised to cross-post what I wrote for NLT. Here are my first thoughts. There will be more, and I'm sure Will will favor us with his views as well.

Giuliani spoke to a packed room of 250, most of whom responded well to what he had to say, both in his stock remarks and in his off-the-cuff responses to questions. He led with (what he and I regard as) his strengths--national security and domestic economic policy--and avoided (what I at least regard as) his weaknesses--social policy, like abortion. (The closest he came to that was in response to an off-the-wall question about killing unwanted animals: he’s against it, would promote adoption, and doesn’t regard it as a federal issue. Should we read something into this?) read more »

Rudy Giuliani in Atlanta

Rudy Giuliani will be speaking at Oglethorpe University at 12 noon on Wednesday, May 16th. The venue is the Emerson Student Center. Follow the crowds on an otherwise empty campus (we held commencement this past Saturday).

There's a notice on the front of Oglethorpe's website for those who need directions.

Unintended consequences of the Edwards blogger "scandal"

One of the unintended consequences of the Edwards' blogger "scandal" is that bloggers now are less likely to be hired by campaigns if they've said anything inflammatory on their blogs. I'm not sure that is bad thing, but it does mean two things.

  1. Intelligent, articulate folks with expertise will be less likely to blog if they believe someday they'll go into public service. This hurts the overall conversation in the blogosphere. Only those whose voices are shrillest and whose prejudices deepest will be willing to stick their heads out there, since they probably didn't plan on getting into politics anyway. The blogosphere is enriched when experts lend their knowledge to discussion and investigation (Dan Rather's use of incorrect documentation is a perfect example). However, daily individuals bring their inside knowledge to the blogosphere and all the readers are enriched.
  2. It also means that folks like me, who understand that Google has a better memory than our own mother, are not going to use their own name. I've considered on several occasions to come clean on my identity, but each time I get nervous that 20 years hence, my future employer will find out that I once considered the flat tax a good idea or Bush a fascist. My identity could be figured out with some digging, but it would take more effort than it was worth at the moment. But let's be honest, a pseudonym is not the preferred method of communication. We all have real identities and real lives and pseudonyms obscure that.

So the Edwards-Blogger "scandal" has pushed me even further into my online presence. Expat Teacher I shall stay.

Biden Enters Presidential Race And Then Immediately Exits

I think we may now have an unofficial record for the shortest presidential campaign in the history of America politics.

Today, Senator Joe Biden of Delaware announced his candidacy. It should be noted that Biden was not going to be a heavy favorite going into the campaign season.

Biden's day could not have gone much worse. He started off by attacking two of the Democratic frontrunners in Hilary Clinton and John Edwards. As if that wasn't enough to start off on a negative footing. He then weighed in on Senator Barack Obama and described him as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."

Can you say, "Game Over"?

While I suppose there might be some vaguely plausible explanation for what Biden said, the damage is done as is his candidacy.

Open Races, Hanging Chads and Voting Machines

I for one, am glad to see that there were not many of these types of cases in the most recent election (at least not that we heard about).

Jennings challenges 369-vote loss in congressional race

State officials have certified the winner in the 13th Congressional District, but the loser is suing for a new election. read more »

2006 Election Recap: What will or should happen next

I posted this at No Left Turns:

First, Republicans have to realize that this is about as big a defeat as can be expected in the House, given modern redistricting technology. There should be no solace taken in the fact that the result was pretty close to the average six-year-itch election.

Second, Republicans in the House need to recognize that they need new faces if they’re to recover some (or all) of the ground they lost last night. And not just new faces. As the resident "compassionate conservative" in these parts, I recognized the risk that GWB was taking in trying to move his party in that direction. House Republicans basically took his willingness to expand government in the short term as an excuse to engage in pork barrel politics. The result was an uninspiring performance that all too easily could be characterized as corrupt "business as usual." Republicans have to relearn and remake the argument for personal responsibility and small government. read more »

2006 Midterm Election Predictions

Over the past few weeks and months many people have been trying to make predictions of today's election. I am not going to bother with this silly exercise. I don't think that there are many people who truly have the pulse on enough races nationally to really have much insight into what is going to happen.

Instead, I am going to make some predictions as to how each party is going to spin the results, no matter what they are. read more »

Monday night predictions

I figure that since I'm a self-appointed pundit on politics, I should put my reputation out on the line and set out my predictions. I've been doing a lot of reading, but I'm certainly not an expert. You might want to check out Chris Bowers' predictions, Chris Cillizza's predictions and Joseph Knippenberg's predictions for people that probably know better than me. Remember my buddy in the trenches who had wise words and predicted a Democratic gain of 19-24 seats. read more »

How I Left My Governor Hanging

I bailed on Governor Ed Rendell today.

Oh don't get me wrong. He's still getting my vote. But I bailed on him. I just walked out. See ya, Gov.

See, I had volunteered to help out at his HQ today. I was scheduled to arrive at noon and stay until 3pm. I had the impression that they were counting on me. That's what they said on the phone. "We're counting on you, Dustin." They even called 3 times this week to confirm that I was coming. That's a lot of human resources devoted to securing the volunteerism of yours truly. read more »

John Kerry and the Wisdom of the Crowd

It is generally said that there is wisdom is crowds. And this is often the case. However in election season those crowds turn into mobs and the wisdom disappears.

This latest Kerry flap is just the latest example of this. The majority of the conservative blogosphere is roiling with righteous indignation about Kerry, hoping that this is their "October surprise". (Fortunately, a few of my favorites including James Lileks, Rod Dreher, and La Shawn Barber are not drinking the Kool-Aid). After hearing many conservatives scream for years about wanting to campaign on the issue, it is disheartening to see so many jumping on the bandwagon of a non-issue. read more »

What will be the results of the midterm 2006 Congressional elections?

Republicans will maintain control of the House and Senate
25% (15 votes)
Republicans will keep the House but lose the Senate
5% (3 votes)
Republicans will keep the Senate but lose the House
40% (24 votes)
Republicans will lose both the House and the Senate.
30% (18 votes)
Total votes: 60