I put this together at the request of my colleagues at No Left Turns, where, as I gather, we're all committing ourselves to foolish predictions about the outcome of Tuesday's elections.

SENATE

CT Lieberman
MD Steele
MI Stabenow
MN Klobuchar
MO Talent
MT Burns
NJ Menendez
OH Brown
PA Casey
RI Whitehouse
TN Corker
VA Webb
WA Cantwell

If I’m right about these races, the Senate will remain in Republican hands (52-46-2). If my three risky picks (Steele, Talent, and Burns) are all mistaken, I assume that Democrats will control the Senate. Of the three, I place the most confidence in Talent, with some confidence in Steele and less still in Burns.

My American Political Parties students agreed with most of my calls, betting on Allen rather than Webb in Virginia and splitting down the middle on the Maryland race. Here are their calls (along with the class margin):

Lieberman (15 – 0)
Cardin/Steele (7 – 7)
Stabenow (15 – 0)
Klobuchar (15 – 0)
Talent (12 – 3)
Burns (9 – 6)
Menendez (14 – 1)
Brown (15 – 0)
Casey (15 – 0)
Whitehouse (8 – 7)
Corker (11 – 3)
Allen (10 – 4)
Cantwell (15 – 0)

The major consequence here is connected with federal judgeships and any possible Supreme Court vacancy. If Republicans retain control, the nuclear option remains at least theoretically on the table to break filibusters. If they don’t, I fear we’re in for some real trouble.

HOUSE

I went to the Real Clear Politics site last night (11/1) and took a look at their 50 closest races. Here are my guesses (and I emphasize that word) by category:

Of the 12 Republican-held seats leaning Democratic, I’m guessing 9 Democratic pick-ups and 3 Republican holds. Of the 13 Republican-held seats judged to be toss-ups, I’m very optimistically guessing 3 Democratic pick-ups and 10 Republican holds. Of the 20 Republican-held seats leaning Republican, I’m guessing 4 Democratic pick-ups and 16 Republican holds. Of the 5 Democratic-held seats, I’m guessing one Republican pick-up (Georgia 12, where Max Burns retakes the seat he held in the 108th Congress) and 4 Democratic holds.

If I’m doing my math correctly, the result is a net gain of 15 seats for the Democrats and the brief Speakership of Nancy Pelosi. Impeachment will not be on the table, but Democratic committee chairs will investigate the heck out of the Bush Administration. A number of the new Democratic Representatives will have won election as “moderates,” and they will be pressed to show their true colors. I’m guessing that would mean it will be next to impossible for there to be an effective Pelosi-inspired governing majority in the House. The minimum wage will go up, but that’s about it.

My students narrowly (8 – 6) expect a Democratic-controlled House.

GOVERNORSHIPS

I haven’t been following these closely, but I expect both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sonny Perdue to be reelected. Indeed, in Georgia I expect a Republican near-sweep of statewide elected offices. The possible exceptions are incumbent Attorney General Thurbert Baker, Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin (who has held office forever), and Labor Comissioner Michael Thurmond. It will be a good year for Republicans in my home state, as they’ll continue to hold the both houses of the state legislature and finally win the Lieutenant Governorship.

BOTTOM LINE

I don’t at the moment expect a Democratic tidal wave or a fundamental partisan realignment. 2008 will present a different set of circumstances, one I (again for the moment) expect will be more favorable for Republicans, or at least less unfavorable. I don’t think that a Pelosi-led House will be able to accomplish much of anything positive, and I think there’s a real danger of the kind of hyperpartisan overreaching of which Republicans were guilty in the last years of the Clinton presidency.